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Which Senate Swing States will Republicans win?
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None
$270,712 Vol.
25%
1%
IA
$663,251 Vol.
12%
3%
IA, KS
$788,075 Vol.
12%
3%
KS
$60,508 Vol.
4%
2%
IA, KS, ME
$49,317 Vol.
2%
1%
All 7
$80,207 Vol.
2%
4%
AK, IA, KS, ME, OH, TX
$33,125 Vol.
1%
1%
IA, KS, OH
$33,732 Vol.
1%
1%
AK
$51,505 Vol.
1%
IA, ME
$46,086 Vol.
1%
1%
IA, KS, ME, MI, TX
$49,645 Vol.
1%
3%
AK, IA, KS
$45,518 Vol.
1%
IA, KS, TX
$32,240 Vol.
1%
3%
KS, ME
$35,127 Vol.
1%
1%
IA, KS, ME, OH, TX
$47,493 Vol.
<1%
1%
IA, KS, OH, TX
$36,234 Vol.
<1%
IA, MI
$53,735 Vol.
<1%
IA, TX
$41,120 Vol.
<1%
ME
$44,111 Vol.
<1%
1%
OH
$31,476 Vol.
<1%
AK, IA, KS, ME, MI, TX
$44,666 Vol.
<1%
3%
AK, IA, KS, ME, TX
$45,311 Vol.
<1%
2%
AK, IA, KS, OH, TX
$45,833 Vol.
<1%
AK, IA, KS, ME
$39,715 Vol.
<1%
2%
AK, IA, KS, TX
$45,404 Vol.
<1%
IA, KS, ME, TX
$45,336 Vol.
<1%
2%
KS, TX
$38,915 Vol.
<1%
IA, KS, ME, MI, OH, TX
$42,726 Vol.
<1%
AK, IA, KS, OH
$48,418 Vol.
<1%
AK, IA, KS, ME, MI, OH
$37,534 Vol.
<1%
AK, IA, KS, MI, OH, TX
$41,123 Vol.
<1%
AK, IA, KS, ME, OH
$49,303 Vol.
<1%
1%
IA, KS, MI
$47,899 Vol.
<1%
1%
TX
$59,943 Vol.
<1%
IA, KS, ME, MI, OH
$30,287 Vol.
<1%
1%
IA, KS, ME, OH
$47,217 Vol.
<1%
1%
AK, IA
$25,191 Vol.
<1%
IA, OH
$48,729 Vol.
<1%
AK, IA, KS, ME, MI
$35,288 Vol.
<1%
AK, IA, KS, MI, OH
$30,763 Vol.
<1%
AK, IA, KS, MI, TX
$29,355 Vol.
<1%
IA, KS, MI, OH, TX
$28,704 Vol.
<1%
AK, IA, KS, MI
$40,145 Vol.
<1%
IA, KS, ME, MI
$39,107 Vol.
<1%
IA, KS, MI, TX
$28,741 Vol.
<1%
AK, IA, ME
$35,119 Vol.
<1%
AK, IA, OH
$35,134 Vol.
<1%
IA, ME, OH
$32,786 Vol.
<1%
KS, OH
$38,018 Vol.
<1%
MI
$53,267 Vol.
<1%
IA, KS, MI, OH
$46,959 Vol.
<1%
AK, IA, TX
$41,835 Vol.
<1%
1%
IA, OH, TX
$30,249 Vol.
<1%
AK, ME
$29,266 Vol.
<1%
AK, KS, ME
$38,253 Vol.
<1%
1%
AK, KS, TX
$24,324 Vol.
<1%
KS, OH, TX
$23,781 Vol.
<1%
AK, OH
$22,117 Vol.
<1%
ME, MI
$35,855 Vol.
<1%
ME, TX
$64,337 Vol.
<1%
KS, ME, OH
$35,092 Vol.
<1%
AK, IA, ME, OH, TX
$31,095 Vol.
<1%
IA, ME, MI, OH, TX
$33,401 Vol.
<1%
AK, IA, ME, MI
$32,494 Vol.
<1%
AK, IA, ME, OH
$33,280 Vol.
<1%
AK, IA, ME, TX
$34,640 Vol.
<1%
AK, IA, OH, TX
$25,277 Vol.
<1%
KS, ME, OH, TX
$35,927 Vol.
<1%
KS, ME, MI
$31,215 Vol.
<1%
KS, MI, OH
$31,883 Vol.
<1%
AK, KS
$41,622 Vol.
<1%
AK, TX
$30,580 Vol.
<1%
ME, OH
$49,306 Vol.
<1%
MI, OH
$37,372 Vol.
<1%
MI, TX
$39,822 Vol.
<1%
1%
OH, TX
$38,414 Vol.
<1%
IA, ME, TX
$36,124 Vol.
<1%
AK, IA, ME, MI, OH, TX
$44,894 Vol.
<1%
AK, KS, ME, MI, OH, TX
$38,938 Vol.
<1%
AK, IA, ME, MI, OH
$34,947 Vol.
<1%
AK, IA, ME, MI, TX
$35,042 Vol.
<1%
AK, IA, MI, OH, TX
$33,998 Vol.
<1%
AK, KS, ME, MI, OH
$34,445 Vol.
<1%
AK, KS, ME, MI, TX
$33,772 Vol.
<1%
AK, KS, ME, OH, TX
$40,247 Vol.
<1%
AK, KS, MI, OH, TX
$36,584 Vol.
<1%
AK, ME, MI, OH, TX
$37,625 Vol.
<1%
KS, ME, MI, OH, TX
$41,810 Vol.
<1%
AK, IA, MI, OH
$36,845 Vol.
<1%
AK, IA, MI, TX
$37,411 Vol.
<1%
AK, KS, ME, MI
$37,067 Vol.
<1%
AK, KS, ME, OH
$35,380 Vol.
<1%
AK, KS, ME, TX
$34,629 Vol.
<1%
AK, KS, MI, OH
$28,835 Vol.
<1%
AK, KS, MI, TX
$33,788 Vol.
<1%
AK, KS, OH, TX
$39,341 Vol.
<1%
AK, ME, MI, OH
$36,403 Vol.
<1%
AK, ME, MI, TX
$34,958 Vol.
<1%
AK, ME, OH, TX
$36,854 Vol.
<1%
AK, MI, OH, TX
$35,413 Vol.
<1%
IA, ME, MI, OH
$34,366 Vol.
<1%
IA, ME, MI, TX
$37,568 Vol.
<1%
1%
IA, ME, OH, TX
$37,789 Vol.
<1%
IA, MI, OH, TX
$30,491 Vol.
<1%
KS, ME, MI, OH
$45,471 Vol.
<1%
KS, ME, MI, TX
$35,093 Vol.
<1%
KS, MI, OH, TX
$32,873 Vol.
<1%
ME, MI, OH, TX
$36,395 Vol.
<1%
AK, IA, MI
$33,398 Vol.
<1%
AK, KS, MI
$34,002 Vol.
<1%
AK, KS, OH
$36,744 Vol.
<1%
AK, ME, MI
$58,552 Vol.
<1%
AK, ME, OH
$35,341 Vol.
<1%
AK, ME, TX
$37,787 Vol.
<1%
AK, MI, OH
$35,631 Vol.
<1%
AK, MI, TX
$33,901 Vol.
<1%
AK, OH, TX
$35,722 Vol.
<1%
IA, ME, MI
$38,583 Vol.
<1%
IA, MI, OH
$30,810 Vol.
<1%
IA, MI, TX
$31,844 Vol.
<1%
KS, ME, TX
$30,362 Vol.
<1%
KS, MI, TX
$33,420 Vol.
<1%
ME, MI, OH
$38,405 Vol.
<1%
ME, MI, TX
$56,974 Vol.
<1%
ME, OH, TX
$35,041 Vol.
<1%
MI, OH, TX
$36,517 Vol.
<1%
AK, MI
$32,966 Vol.
<1%
KS, MI
$37,554 Vol.
<1%
Rules
This market will resolve according to which of the United States Senate general elections in Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio (special election), and Texas, currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, are won by the Republican candidate, inclusive of any potential runoffs.
Each listed outcome names the exact set of these states in which the Republican candidate wins. An outcome will resolve to "Yes" only if the Republican candidate wins every state it names and does not win any of the other states covered by this market. A s... This market will resolve according to which of the United States Senate general elections in Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio (special election), and Texas, currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, are won by the Republican candidate, inclusive of any potential runoffs.
Each listed outcome names the exact set of these states in which the Republican candidate wins. An outcome will resolve to "Yes" only if the Republican candidate wins every state it names and does not win any of the other states covered by this market. A state counts as not won by the Republican candidate if any other candidate wins it, including a Democratic, independent, or third-party candidate, or if its results cannot be determined by March 31, 2027.
A candidate will be considered to represent the Republican Party by their ballot-listed affiliation or if they are the nominee of the Republican Party. Candidates who run as independents will not be considered to represent the Republican Party regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called the relevant elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Market Opened: Oct 26, 2026, 6:21 PM ET
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