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Which Senate Swing States will Republicans win?
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None
$94,282 Vol.
25%
2%
IA, KS
$723,107 Vol.
16%
5%
IA
$593,522 Vol.
14%
7%
IA, KS, ME
$18,071 Vol.
4%
KS
$12,758 Vol.
3%
3%
All 7
$50,073 Vol.
3%
3%
AK, IA, KS, ME, MI, TX
$7,853 Vol.
3%
IA, KS, TX
$6,893 Vol.
3%
IA, KS, ME, TX
$8,036 Vol.
3%
AK, IA, KS, ME, TX
$13,010 Vol.
2%
IA, KS, ME, MI, TX
$14,041 Vol.
2%
1%
IA, ME
$16,526 Vol.
2%
AK, IA, KS
$4,784 Vol.
2%
1%
IA, TX
$8,089 Vol.
2%
1%
IA, KS, OH
$6,697 Vol.
1%
AK, IA, KS, ME, OH, TX
$4,111 Vol.
1%
KS, ME
$6,284 Vol.
1%
AK, IA, KS, ME
$2,248 Vol.
1%
2%
ME
$7,218 Vol.
1%
IA, KS, ME, MI, OH, TX
$2,835 Vol.
1%
AK, IA, KS, TX
$4,481 Vol.
1%
AK
$5,275 Vol.
1%
AK, IA, KS, ME, MI, OH
$1,976 Vol.
<1%
AK, IA
$3,290 Vol.
<1%
IA, KS, MI
$7,632 Vol.
<1%
IA, KS, ME, OH
$9,638 Vol.
<1%
1%
IA, KS, OH, TX
$3,817 Vol.
<1%
IA, ME, OH
$2,075 Vol.
<1%
KS, ME, OH
$866 Vol.
<1%
1%
IA, KS, ME, OH, TX
$11,550 Vol.
<1%
1%
AK, IA, KS, MI, TX
$1,358 Vol.
<1%
KS, ME, TX
$1,759 Vol.
<1%
1%
KS, OH
$1,636 Vol.
<1%
AK, IA, OH
$1,650 Vol.
<1%
1%
AK, IA, KS, MI, OH
$1,972 Vol.
<1%
IA, KS, MI, OH, TX
$1,677 Vol.
<1%
AK, IA, KS, MI
$1,465 Vol.
<1%
AK, IA, MI, TX
$1,791 Vol.
<1%
AK, KS, ME, OH
$1,650 Vol.
<1%
AK, KS, MI, OH
$1,707 Vol.
<1%
IA, KS, MI, TX
$1,942 Vol.
<1%
KS, ME, MI
$1,609 Vol.
<1%
KS, MI, TX
$2,162 Vol.
<1%
AK, MI
$667 Vol.
<1%
KS, TX
$7,543 Vol.
<1%
AK, IA, KS, ME, OH
$1,605 Vol.
<1%
KS, ME, MI, TX
$1,916 Vol.
<1%
ME, MI, OH, TX
$1,894 Vol.
<1%
IA, ME, TX
$2,358 Vol.
<1%
IA, OH, TX
$1,467 Vol.
<1%
IA, MI
$12,777 Vol.
<1%
KS, MI
$1,804 Vol.
<1%
TX
$8,130 Vol.
<1%
AK, IA, KS, MI, OH, TX
$2,065 Vol.
<1%
AK, IA, ME, MI, TX
$1,258 Vol.
<1%
IA, KS, ME, MI, OH
$1,397 Vol.
<1%
1%
AK, IA, OH, TX
$1,637 Vol.
<1%
AK, IA, ME
$1,561 Vol.
<1%
AK, OH
$1,365 Vol.
<1%
ME, MI
$892 Vol.
<1%
AK, MI, OH, TX
$1,739 Vol.
<1%
ME, OH, TX
$996 Vol.
<1%
AK, IA, KS, OH, TX
$3,015 Vol.
<1%
AK, KS, ME, MI, TX
$2,078 Vol.
<1%
OH
$5,085 Vol.
<1%
1%
AK, IA, MI, OH
$5,373 Vol.
<1%
AK, ME, OH, TX
$1,834 Vol.
<1%
AK, KS, ME
$1,793 Vol.
<1%
3%
AK, KS
$1,576 Vol.
<1%
AK, IA, ME, MI, OH, TX
$2,804 Vol.
<1%
AK, IA, KS, ME, MI
$3,888 Vol.
<1%
AK, IA, KS, OH
$5,440 Vol.
<1%
AK, IA, ME, MI
$2,126 Vol.
<1%
AK, IA, ME, OH
$1,997 Vol.
<1%
AK, KS, ME, MI
$4,828 Vol.
<1%
AK, KS, ME, TX
$2,511 Vol.
<1%
AK, KS, MI, TX
$2,575 Vol.
<1%
AK, ME, MI, OH
$3,937 Vol.
<1%
IA, KS, MI, OH
$1,511 Vol.
<1%
IA, ME, MI, OH
$2,381 Vol.
<1%
IA, ME, OH, TX
$4,845 Vol.
<1%
KS, ME, MI, OH
$2,011 Vol.
<1%
AK, IA, MI
$2,647 Vol.
<1%
1%
AK, IA, TX
$2,655 Vol.
<1%
1%
AK, KS, MI
$2,042 Vol.
<1%
IA, MI, TX
$3,381 Vol.
<1%
ME, MI, OH
$2,670 Vol.
<1%
AK, ME
$1,849 Vol.
<1%
ME, TX
$5,195 Vol.
<1%
MI, OH
$2,373 Vol.
<1%
MI, TX
$5,113 Vol.
<1%
MI
$5,697 Vol.
<1%
AK, IA, ME, MI, OH
$2,323 Vol.
<1%
AK, KS, ME, MI, OH
$2,475 Vol.
<1%
KS, MI, OH, TX
$2,200 Vol.
<1%
OH, TX
$5,474 Vol.
<1%
AK, KS, ME, MI, OH, TX
$5,286 Vol.
<1%
AK, IA, ME, OH, TX
$6,359 Vol.
<1%
AK, IA, MI, OH, TX
$2,487 Vol.
<1%
AK, KS, ME, OH, TX
$8,346 Vol.
<1%
AK, KS, MI, OH, TX
$2,460 Vol.
<1%
AK, ME, MI, OH, TX
$2,638 Vol.
<1%
1%
IA, ME, MI, OH, TX
$1,845 Vol.
<1%
KS, ME, MI, OH, TX
$6,220 Vol.
<1%
AK, IA, ME, TX
$2,278 Vol.
<1%
AK, KS, OH, TX
$1,113 Vol.
<1%
AK, ME, MI, TX
$4,332 Vol.
<1%
IA, KS, ME, MI
$983 Vol.
<1%
1%
IA, ME, MI, TX
$7,065 Vol.
<1%
IA, MI, OH, TX
$2,241 Vol.
<1%
KS, ME, OH, TX
$4,680 Vol.
<1%
1%
AK, KS, OH
$2,369 Vol.
<1%
AK, KS, TX
$2,004 Vol.
<1%
AK, ME, MI
$1,926 Vol.
<1%
AK, ME, OH
$2,012 Vol.
<1%
AK, ME, TX
$2,087 Vol.
<1%
AK, MI, OH
$2,018 Vol.
<1%
AK, MI, TX
$1,995 Vol.
<1%
AK, OH, TX
$2,310 Vol.
<1%
IA, ME, MI
$2,305 Vol.
<1%
IA, MI, OH
$2,309 Vol.
<1%
KS, MI, OH
$2,687 Vol.
<1%
KS, OH, TX
$2,257 Vol.
<1%
3%
ME, MI, TX
$3,980 Vol.
<1%
MI, OH, TX
$2,662 Vol.
<1%
AK, TX
$2,896 Vol.
<1%
1%
IA, OH
$5,307 Vol.
<1%
1%
ME, OH
$2,261 Vol.
<1%
Rules
This market will resolve according to which of the United States Senate general elections in Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio (special election), and Texas, currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, are won by the Republican candidate, inclusive of any potential runoffs.
Each listed outcome names the exact set of these states in which the Republican candidate wins. An outcome will resolve to "Yes" only if the Republican candidate wins every state it names and does not win any of the other states covered by this market. A s... This market will resolve according to which of the United States Senate general elections in Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio (special election), and Texas, currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, are won by the Republican candidate, inclusive of any potential runoffs.
Each listed outcome names the exact set of these states in which the Republican candidate wins. An outcome will resolve to "Yes" only if the Republican candidate wins every state it names and does not win any of the other states covered by this market. A state counts as not won by the Republican candidate if any other candidate wins it, including a Democratic, independent, or third-party candidate, or if its results cannot be determined by March 31, 2027.
A candidate will be considered to represent the Republican Party by their ballot-listed affiliation or if they are the nominee of the Republican Party. Candidates who run as independents will not be considered to represent the Republican Party regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called the relevant elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Market Opened: Oct 26, 2026, 6:21 PM ET
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